Contribution au choix modal interurbain en considérant les systèmes de transport intra-urbains : application d'un modèle LOGIT mixte multinomial adapté au corridor Jakarta-Bandung

Contribution to the intercity modal choise considering the intracity transport systems : application of an adapted mixed multinomial Logit model for the Jakarta-Bandung corridor

• Auteur / Autrice : Lita Sari Barus
• Direction : Jean-Louis Batoz, Sigit Pranowo Hadiwardoyo, Hipolito Martell Flores
• Type : Thèse de doctorat
• Discipline(s) : Génie des Systèmes Urbains
• Date : Soutenance le 30/10/2015
• Etablissement(s) : Compiègne en cotutelle avec Universitas Indonesia
• Ecole(s) doctorale(s) : École doctorale 71, Sciences pour l'ingénieur (Compiègne)

Mots clés

Mots clés contrôlés

Circulation

Prise de décision

Transport multimodal

Transport -- Choix des modes

Transport de voyageurs

Transports urbains

Transports publics

Mots clés libres

Systèmes de transport inter-cité et et intra-cité

Concurrence modale

Choix modal

Préférences des passagers

Modèle Logit

Modèle Logit Mixte Multinomial Adapté (LMMA)

Analyse décisionnelle

Corridor Jakarta-Bandung

Intracity and intercity transport systems

Modal competition

Modal choice

Passenger's preferences

Adapted Mixed Multinomial Logit (AMML) Model

Résumé

Ce travail de recherche traite de la problématique des transports dans les villes d’Indonésie, Jakarta et Bandung, mais également de la grande concurrence modale du trajet Jakarta-Bandung et Bandung-Jakarta. Les préférences des passagers sont des variables très importantes à connaître en raison de leurs impacts pour choisir un mode de transport parmi d’autres. Dans les transports, le modèle Logit est largement utilisé comme une méthode pour aborder la problématique du choix de transport multimodal comportant de multiples variables, mais dans la présente recherche, ces modèles ne sont pas appropriés pour la résolution de nos problèmes, car il y a des variables particulières à identifier et à prendre en compte. Par conséquent, nous avons développé pour nos besoins le modèle « Logit Mixed Multinomial Adapté (LMMA) » comme outil dédié à l’analyse décisionnelle dans le choix des modes de transport des passagers. La première partie de nos travaux de recherches porte sur l’identification et la compréhension des problèmes de transports intra-cité d’origine et de destination pour le choix du mode de transport entre Jakarta et Bandung (et puis entre Bandung et Jakarta). La seconde partie concerne le processus de décision final en proposant et en analysant les résultats d’un questionnaire adressé à de nombreux utilisateurs de la liaison Jakarta-Bandung (et Bandung-Jakarta). L’analyse permet pour chaque situation d’origine et de destination, et en tenant compte des services offerts par chaque mode inter-cité, d’identifier quel est le mode le plus compétitif.

An ideal city or intercity transport system is one where all the transport networks, involving in general different modes of transport, could serve together the cities connections to fulfill a passenger demand and satisfaction. Each transport network should have a logical layout (as possible with minimum discontinuities) to meet the required demands. Also in that ideal system, the different modes of transport should not only have their own good performances but also the exchange between modes should be done with harmony. The conditions as mentioned above are worldwide challenges. The present work deals with the transportation problematic between two Indonesian cities, and also with the high modal competition on the Jakarta-Bandung corridor. On that corridor, road transport is currently the main demanding mode for passengers transportation. The airlines cannot compete and discontinued their operations to this route. Nowadays, railway transport is decaying. Passengers preferences are the main variables for the final modal choice. It is necessary to know preferences due to their decisions impacts to choose one mode over the others. Those preferences are in fact not simple to express in a complex city and intercity transport system. In transportation, the Logit model is widely used as a method to explore the problematic of modal choices involving a lot of different variables. There are several Logit models already developed, such as “General Extreme Value”, “Probit”, and “Nested model”, but in this research, they are not compatible to solve our defined problems because there are some particular identified variables to be taken into account. Therefore we propose the "Adapted Mixed Multinomial Logit (AMML)" Model as a tool for analysis towards passenger's decision in modal choices. On the Jakarta-Bandung corridor, modal choices are influenced by the encountered problems in intercity transport at origin and destination. One part on this research deals with identification and understanding of the intracity transport problems of origin and destination on the choice of transport mode in Jakarta-Bandung corridor (Jakarta-Bandung and Bandung-Jakarta direction). The second part of this research deals with the final decision process by analyzing the results of questionnaires addressed to many users of the Jakarta-Bandung corridor. The five main variables of the last questionnaire are travel time, overall cost, security conditions, quality of travel information and connectivity conditions relevant to intercity transport and intracities transport conditions as well. After validation of the questionaires, this research uses the AMML model to get final decision result by comparing one mode among three intercity transport mode (train, minibus, and car) using the values of the variables. Taking into account the characteristics of each intercity mode of transportation, the analysis identifies the most competitive intercity transport mode for each situation from departure city to arrival city. Using alternative public and private transport modes policies, one could in the future modify passenger choice on intercity transport mode. Therefore, this study is relevant for improving of intracity and intercity transport systems.