Déséquilibres macroéconomiques et leur résolution

Drivers of macroeconomic imbalances and their resolution

• Auteur / Autrice : José Luis Diaz Sanchez
• Direction : Jean-Bernard Chatelain
• Type : Thèse de doctorat
• Discipline(s) : Sciences économiques
• Date : Soutenance le 13/06/2014
• Etablissement(s) : Paris 1
• Ecole(s) doctorale(s) : École doctorale d'Économie (Paris)
• Partenaire(s) de recherche : Equipe de recherche : Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne (Paris ; 2006-....)
• Jury : Président / Présidente : Catherine Bruneau
• Jury : Examinateurs / Examinatrices : Jean-Bernard Chatelain
• Jury : Rapporteurs / Rapporteuses : Christophe Rault, Cécile Couharde

Mots clés

Mots clés contrôlés

Crises économiques

Équilibre (économie politique)

Mots clés libres

Macroéconomie

Déséquilibres

Grande Récession

Crise économique

Macroeconomics

Imbalances

Great Recession

Economic crisis

Résumé

Déséquilibres macroéconomiques et leur résolution.

Large imbalances in both the US and within the Eurozone preceded the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 (the Great Recession). Ex-post, it seems surprising that not enough attention was given to the fast rise of these imbalances -especially to the development of housing price bubbles- by economists, and even less by policy makers. A long period of relatively low macroeconomic volatility occurring between the mid-1980s to the late 2000s -the so called “Great Moderation”- along with the underestimation of the existence of bubbles in asset prices gave the impression that the large crises of the past were unlikely to reappear. Many economic commentators even saw this as a sign of the decreased relevance of the International Monetary Fund since the global financial stability seemed warranted. The policy of low inflation was viewed by most in the economics profession as more than sufficient to maintain macro stability, and the efficient market hypothesis, developed first by Eugene Fama in the 1970s, dominated the macro-models used in the academia, international organizations, and in central banks (Shiller’s best seller “Irrational Exuberance”was among one of the courageous exceptions). As a result of this inattention, the fast unwinding of these imbalances plunged in 2008-2009 the global economy in an unprecedented crisis -by many measures- since the Great Depression. The recovery from the Great Recession has been slow, with a “double-dip” recession in the Eurozone, and the prospects for a return to sustained high growth still remain uncertain.