La méthode des modules fonctionnels appliquée à la détermination du coût d'un investissement : cas des unités pétrochimiques

The functional module method applied to investisment cost evaluation : case of petrochemical unit

• Auteur / Autrice : Jacques Bergman
• Direction : Claude Ponsard
• Type : Thèse de doctorat
• Discipline(s) : Sciences économiques
• Date : Soutenance en 1987
• Etablissement(s) : Dijon

Mots clés

Mots clés libres

Sciences appliquées

Energie

Raffinage

Petrochimie

Cout investissement

Methode calcul

Hydrocraquage

Kerosene|ent

Analyse economique

Module fonctionnel

Analyse statistique

Traitement donnee

Echantillonnage

Conception assistee

Refining

Petrochemistry

Investment cost

Calculating method

Hydrocracking

Kerosine

Economic analysis

Functional module

Statistical analysis

Data processing

Sampling

Computer aided design

Sciences économiques

Mathématiques, Econométrie et Informatique

Econométrie

Estimation

Evaluation

Petrochimie

Methodes statistiques

Modules fonctionnels( methode )

Résumé

L'analyse des methodes statistiques "d'analyse de donnees" a un large echantillonnage d'informations, obtenus soit directement 0 partir de sources de renseignements prives, soit en ayant recours 0 un logiciel de dimensionnement et d'estimation detailles a permis la mise au point d'une methode d'evaluation du cout d'un investissement developpee sous le nom de "methodes des modules fonctionnels". Apres avoir situe cette methode dans l'evolution historique des theories et des methodes d'evaluation des couts d'investissement, les supports informatiques necessaires à sa mise en oeuvre sont presentés. Les techniques d'echantillonnage, d'analyse des donnees sont décrites. Cette methode est appliquee à l'evaluation du cout d'une unite d'hydrocraquage du kerosene.

The use of advanced statistical multivariate "data-analysis" technique for a large set of process data, obtained by a computer design procedure and by private IFP data, has led to a new rapide method of capital cost estimated for chemical plants. In the past a whole family of shortcut methods, using a modular approach has been conceived. Nevertheless the undertaking of an integrated project with extensive use of techniques such as principal component analysis, principales factor analysis and multiple linear regression together with modular principles and cost structure philosophy, seems not to have been made thusfar. We chose, as in the detailed IFP evaluating method, to maintain the modular approach model, changing only the conception of the chemical processing block. There a functional approach led to the concept of functional modules based mainly on the basic concept of unit operation. Otherwise for each functional module prior statistical analysis highligted the appropriate set of correlating variables regarding more than one hundred possible configurations. This procedure ensured a remarkable flexibility when the final correlating model was developped. The general nature of this work is heightened by a set of factors, ensuring a choice of materials compatible with the involved products specification. The application of these elements to a large set of process data has enable us to obtain a more reliable and rapid methodology of capital-cost forecasting. All that needs to be used is a basic flow-sheet indicating : the nature of the products to be treated, both the functional modules and their operational conditions and a material balance detailing the main streams. Results will be presented by monographs or by a set of equations, geard for pocket-calculator programs. Devised for use mainly in the early stages of process development, where a detailed equipment configuration is not available, the method has nevertheless shown good accuracy for detailed process estimating.